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Will Goldman’s new S&P 500 target hit the mark?
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The news that the COVID-19 vaccine from drugmaker Pfizer PFE, -1.32% and its partner BioNTech BNTX, +7.59% is 90% effective, according to Bernstein Research strategist Inigo Fraser Jenkins, has sent stocks scurrying like “tracks left in a cloud chamber from particles scattering in an accelerator.”
Goldman Sachs strategists, led by David Kostin, say the vaccine is a more important development for the economy and markets than the prospective policies of a Biden presidency. “The divisive U.S. presidential campaign was actually a backdrop to the main event: a public health crisis that has tragically claimed 240,000 lives in the U.S. since it began. However, within less than a year, a vaccine has been discovered,” they say.
The Goldman team boosted its year-end price target on the S&P 500 SPX, -0.14% to 3700 from 3600, which isn’t so far away from Tuesday’s closing level of 3545.53. Goldman is also targeting 4300 by the end of 2021 and 4600 by the end of 2022.
They expect the Pfizer vaccine, and possibly others, will receive emergency use authorization by the end of January, and sufficient doses will be available for the U.S. population during the first half of 2021. They increased earnings estimates, mostly reflecting the better-than-expected results for the third quarter. They also are expecting better growth in the U.S. next year than the market does, at 5.3% versus the consensus forecast of 3.8%. A weakening U.S. dollar DXY, +0.27% and slack in the labor market should support S&P 500 sales and margins, they add.
They are not too worried about the weight of the technology giants — Facebook FB, -2.27%, Amazon AMZN, -3.45%, Apple AAPL, -0.30%, Microsoft MSFT, -3.37% and Google owner Alphabet GOOG, -1.28%. The S&P 500 would rise 9% if the FAAMG stocks trade sideways and the remaining 495 stocks rise by the historical median 12-month rise of 12%. And the S&P 500 would rise 16% if the FAAMG stocks rise 5% and the remaining 495 climb 20%, which would represent an 80th percentile move based on historical distribution since 1990.
As for the debate about value or growth, the Goldman team likes both. For value stocks, the team noted that Monday was the largest single-day increase in the factor’s history since 1980, while they say growth stocks should continue to benefit from weak trend economic growth and low interest rates.
“When thinking about the potential resolution of today’s record valuation dispersion, investors often recall the unwind of the tech bubble, which was characterized by a two-year bear market and large negative absolute returns of the previous market leaders. More often than not, however, value rallies tend to occur in rising markets during which high valuation stocks also rise but are outpaced by the lowest valuation firms. This ‘catch up’ dynamic is what we expect will take place in coming months as a vaccine is approved and distributed,” they say.
Also read: Here’s what strategists are saying about tech stocks and the rotation into value
The buzz
Coronavirus hospitalizations reached a record in the U.S. on Tuesday, driven by increases in states including Oklahoma, Minnesota and Texas. Measures of mobility are starting to slope downward, a sign Americans are becoming more cautious, even as few states impose fresh lockdown measures.
Hong Kong-listed shares of Alibaba BABA, -8.25%, JD.com JD, -5.63% and Tencent 700, -7.39% tumbled after China’s Communist Party outlined rules against monopolistic practices in the technology sector. China also moved to disqualify four pro-democracy legislators in Hong Kong.
The Trump campaign said it filed a lawsuit seeking to stop certification of Michigan election results. Betting markets in the U.K. assign a 10% probability to Trump serving a second term.
Ride-hailing company Lyft LYFT, -4.35% reported that it recovered more than half its business from pre-pandemic days in the third quarter. Application monitoring company Datadog DDOG, -2.41% dropped even as the company raised its financial outlook.
The markets
Nasdaq-100 futures NQ00, +0.97% jumped after Tuesday’s selloff, while S&P 500 futures ES00, +0.81% also gained. Outside of China and Hong Kong, most overseas stock markets also rose.
Crude-oil futures CL.1, +3.16% rallied, while gold GCZ20, -0.16% was steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.979% edged up to 0.98%.
Random reads
The Chinese city of Shenzhen has made leave time mandatory in a bid to reduce burnout.
One of Jupiter’s moons probably glows in the dark.
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