LONDON—Unceasing U.S. shale-oil production will reshape global energy markets in the years to come, bolstering the country’s influence over nations in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said that even as annual U.S. production growth slows from the pace seen in recent years, its forecast scenario for policies already announced mean that the country will account for 85% of the increase in global oil production to 2030.
“U.S. growth will limit the ability of traditional exporters to manage exports,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “Countries whose economies are exclusively reliant on oil-and-gas reserves are facing serious challenges.”
The report comes as OPEC leaders and their allies are readying themselves to meet in Vienna next month to discuss continuing oil production cuts, and as Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Aramco, prepares for its long-awaited initial public offering.
Higher U.S. output—rising to 19 million barrels a day of production over the coming decade—will push down the share of the global oil market held by OPEC members and Russia, to 47% in 2030 from 55% in the mid 2000s, the agency said.
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