Down more than 48% this year when measured in dollars, Brazilian stocks will benefit from growing appetite for risky assets and a recovery in commodities prices during the second half of 2020, strategists led by Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a report dated May 20.
“Brazilian equities are an ideal bounceback candidate,” the strategists said. They recommended investors go long the benchmark Ibovespa index with a target of 90,000 points, or about 9% above current levels.
Investors have fled from Brazilian stocks and its currency this year as the Covid-19 pandemic battered the economy and worsened the nation’s already-fragile fiscal outlook. Assets have been further undermined by political turbulence and a lack of confidence in President Jair Bolsonaro as he downplays the coronavirus threat even as Brazil becomes the world’s hotspot for new infections.
To be sure, a rally to 90,000 would still leave the Ibovespa about 22% below where it was at the end of last year.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.