Outside the Box: If you buy the S&P 500 Index now, there is only a 4% chance you’ll be paying too much

It’s been another terrifying time for U.S. stock-market investors — the S&P 500 SPX suffered its worst first-half for any year since 1970. Where do we go from here?

I remember the 2007-2008 crash when the S&P 500 fell 41% from its high and financial guru Zvi Bodie famously advised, “Unless you have the heart of a high stakes gambler, get out of stocks now.” Unfortunately he gave this advice in March 2009, which happened to be the bottom of the crash. When an interviewer asked Bodie, “Wouldn’t leaving the stock market right…